How Hamas Wins by Losing

In every scenario save a very long Israeli occupation (which is unlikely), Hamas will have an opportunity to eventually regenerate. New fighters can be trained, new rockets acquired, new smuggling tunnels built. If Israel's choke hold on Gaza for the past year hasn't stopped Hamas from arming itself, then it's a good bet that the presence of international monitors won't either.

The argument that Israel's incursion will give the nation an upper hand in any future talks — and allow it to dictate the terms of a new cease-fire — doesn't really wash. Any new truce will be brokered by third parties; while U.S. President-elect Barack Obama chooses to remain silent, France's Nicolas Sarkozy is offering himself for the role. That alone means Israel won't have everything its way. The international outcry over the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza means the broker will insist that Israel loosen the economic shackles as well as withdraw troops. And when the money begins to flow in, it will flow through the Hamas networks that control every aspect of Gaza. The militants will distribute some of the money to Gazans, looking like generous benefactors; the rest they will use to rebuild their military capability.